One could define risk management as the identification, analysis and elimination of those hazards, as well as the residual risks that threaten the viability of an enterprise. The discussion if it is possible or practical to eliminate hazards are ongoing with opposing views. Airports and airlines accept the inherent risks in aviation every time there is a movement on the field or in aeronavigation. On the other hand, both regulators and professional auditors, expects from the corrective action plans that an operator make changes to ensure that an occurrence will never happen again. While it is unreasonable to expect the complete elimination of risk in aviation, it is also unreasonable to expect that that all risks are acceptable. It is a fine line to balance between what risks to eliminate, and what risk to accept. Risk acceptance, or elimination is a 3D identification process measured in time (speed), space (location), and compass (direction). When 3D thinking is introduced, a future scenario can be designed, or the exposure level. Risk mitigation then becomes an exposure level mitigation and not the mitigation of the hazard itself. This does not imply that the future can be predicted, but it implies that data, information, knowledge, and comprehension are vital steps to predict hazards that affect operational processes. Exposure level mitigation is currently a major part of risk mitigation, e.g., airside markings, markers, signs or lighting, or aeronavigation flow into congested airspace and for gate assignments.
Risk in aviation are the common cause variations, which are variations within a process, and required to be a part of the process for the process to function as intended. An example of a common cause variation is the runway friction. Without runway friction landings and takeoffs would not be possible. For an air operator, runway friction becomes a special cause variation with rain, snow or slush. Special cause variations are mitigated to an acceptable exposure level. The difference between a risk and a hazard, is that a hazard is one item and the effect it has on safety, while the risk is a conglomerate of hazard probabilities in a 3D scenario with a combined effect of safety.
Let’s take a moment and analyze the probability of the probability of a midair disaster involving two aircraft departing 350 NM apart and travelling to two different destinations in a non-congested airspace. If a risk assessment was done of a midair collision prior to departure, the assumption is that both assessments would accept the risk and defined as a green color. In this first risk assessment the planned departure times and destinations of the other aircraft was unknown. An inherent risk in aviation, or common cause variation, is that the 3D position of other aircraft flying in accordance with the visual flight rules (VFR) are unknown. In an instrument flight rule (IFR) environment, the position of other aircraft, or their estimated 3D positions are known and mitigated. In an IFR environment the exposure level is mitigated to an acceptable level. In a VFR operational environment, the exposure level is unknown until communication between pilots are established, or visual contact has been established.
|Safety in aviation is the strategic game of moving hazards.|
|Safety is Project Solutions Leadership Motivation|